HSBC predicts gold’s ‘bull wave’ to hit $5,000 in 2026

HSBC forecasts that gold’s bull rally would drive prices as high as $5,000 an ounce in 2026, supported by elevated risks and the impact of new entrants into the market. Spot gold breached the $4,300 level on Thursday and was headed for its strongest week since December 2008.

The advance has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, robust central bank buying, rising exchange-traded-fund inflows, expectations of US rate cuts and tariff-related economic uncertainties.“The bull market is likely to continue to press prices higher for 1H’26 and we could very well reach a high of $5,000/oz sometime in 1H 2026,” HSBC said in a research note.

HSBC also raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,455 per ounce from $3,355 previously. It increased its 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,600, up from its previous estimate of $3,950. The bank cited geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty and rising public debt as factors supporting the price.