WGC sees precious metal remaining range bound in 2026

The World Gold Council says that 2025-December’s 4.2% gain capped a 67% full‑year advance in US dollar terms, an extraordinary run that was echoed across major currencies.

Gold enters 2026 with a price that broadly reflects market‑consensus macro assumptions, like steady global growth, modest further Fed cuts (75 bps), a slightly firmer dollar and largely flat long‑end yields. In that “status quo” setup, the World Gold Council (WGC) sees performance as broadly rangebound.

But its scenario map is skewed to the upside if growth slips and policy eases, resulting in a ‘shallow slip’ between 5 percent and 15 percent. In case of  a deeper synchronised downturn and higher geopolitical risk materialise, the global body sees a ‘doom loo,’ in which case prices may surge between 15 per cent and 30 per cent.

The backdrop to this year’s debate is a historic 2025: gold notched 53 all‑time highs and finished December at $4,368/oz, after peaking at $4,449/oz on December 23. December’s 4.2 per cent gain capped a 67 percent full‑year advance in US dollar terms, an extraordinary run that was echoed across major currencies.

The WGC’s attribution points to options activity (a facet of “risk & uncertainty”), a weaker US dollar led by EM FX, and falling yields as key drivers; geopolitics loomed large throughout the year.