TRANS ATLANTIC GEM SALES: MARKET & TENDER REPORT – MAY 2026

Despite the US inference that the conflict with Iran would end quickly, the escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East significantly affected trading hubs like Dubai, where flight disruptions and travel fears reduced customer traffic. This escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East has had a significant effect on trading hubs like Dubai, where flight disruptions and travel fears reduced customer traffic. While TAGS hosted a slightly reduced tender schedule during the past two months, several other tender houses temporarily relocated some sales to India with only average results.

The macroeconomic effect, however, remains huge. Rising oil prices affect everyone, and India, as a large importer of oil, is feeling a direct impact. This impedes Central Banks’ ability to reduce interest rates, and has caused recent volatility in the Rupee, which has in turn affected the diamond industry. The weaker Rupee ($1 to 95 rupee) heavily impacts the current market, particularly in the small sizes and cheap goods.

Despite this situation, many of the ongoing issues within the industry remain broadly structural. Market recovery remains reliant on a coordinated marketing approach to differentiate LGD from Natural Diamonds, a radical shift in retail practices and attitude, and the future of De Beers under new ownership. With consumer spending heavily impacted by global issues, the new owner will hopefully have the necessary ability and budget to reignite the industry.

ROUGH:

As we entered May, which marks summer holidays in India, and a quieter season, polished and rough trading has slowed, particularly in smaller sizes. A small De Beers May Sight 5 was presented again with no price adjustments in small sizes, but as in previous sales, Sightholders had the option to refuse all smalls and cheaper ranges, without penalty. In the past few weeks, Alrosa’s sales team visited India and indicated that the expected contract sales in May would be cancelled and replaced by a tender system. However, when the goods list was released, it contained around 5m cts of goods 3grs and below. This news shocked the market, as there is simply no demand for these goods, especially now in the quieter period. Some 20 companies have been invited to view the goods in Moscow, and the results will be announced on 1 June.

In Angola, Luelle and Catoca continue to sell into the market, but prices continue to fall. While De Beers holds considerable roughstock in Botswana, many ‘junior miners’ have permanently closed or been put on ‘care and maintenance’ during the past year alone. This has led to shortages, particularly in larger sizes and corresponding price increases across those ranges.As touched on in our last report, it is difficult to underestimate the impact of this reduction in natural diamond supply, which has been dramatic.

Global Rough production this year is estimated at approximately 95–100m carats, the lowest level since 1987. In effect, as we look ahead, there are just 3 entities which control most of the world’s production, De Beers, Endiama and Alrosa.

Currently, in contrast to their previous stance of tighter distribution, Alrosa and Endiama seem willing to sell regardless of the market conditions. Meanwhile, De Beers still waits for a buyer who it is hoped might generate some much-needed market stability. Let’s hope that this supply consolidation might generate some coordination going forward, enabling the industry to drive an upward trend in rough prices, following a year-on-year decline of as much as 50% since the peak of 2022.

The recent WFDB Summit was held in Gaborone from 18-19 May. The summit focused on the long-term positioning of rough diamonds and aligning provenance, beneficiation, sustainability, transparency, and value creation across all producing countries and trading centres. A key milestone was the announcement that Botswana and Angola will join WFDB as Nation Affiliated Members, further cementing relations between producer countries and the global trading community. From the mining perspective, producers cannot economically choose what they mine, so a further challenge going forward for all will be managing the less desirable sizes and qualities. For these, the industry will either have to rebuild demand or find alternative uses.

POLISHED:

Despite all the gloom in the mid-stream, the retailers at the higher end are doing relatively well. The latest results from Richemont Group (+8%) indicate that consumers are still willing to spend. The recent Gem Geneva Show (7 -10 May) attracted a record number of participants since its launch in 2018. The bulk of attendees were from European countries, and the show was considered a success. 

All eyes will now be on the JCK Vegas Show (29 May-1 June), which is one of the strongest indicators of the US market going forward. Positive expectations exist for the higher end of the market and in +2ct sizes. While prices for +2ct polished remain strong, other polished price points have remained generally unchanged in recent weeks. The main concern is the possibility of prolonged unrest in the Middle East and consumers’ willingness to purchase diamonds at a time when the higher cost of living globally impacts household budgets, resulting in less discretionary income. This impact will be felt by all leading consumer centres. While shortages in larger sizes have generated an increase in price, as availability reduces, it’s hoped that the same might ultimately be seen in other size categories, but this would take an industry-wide push to promote demand for eg. 1ct polished, which consumers have decimated by opting for LGD.

Another important move required is a change in the industry’s approach to selling LGD. Currently, retailers are presenting Natural Diamond alongside LGD, as an interchangeable product which is considered ‘identical’. This approach can only continue to erode natural diamond pricing. In India, the market is stable with steady demand from US buyers. The domestic Indian market, as previously reported, is solid, although currently, polished manufacturing has slowed due to the May holidays. It is reported that Chinese mainland buyers are moving towards LGD, and natural diamonds below 0.30pts are hard to sell. Hong Kong consumers continue to purchase goods from 0.50 up (D-F IF-VVS).

A concerning statistic from India is that for the first time, India has exported more LGD than natural polished. Official figures confirm March exports of 1.4m carats compared to 1.3m carats of natural, and it is believed the\ trend has continued through April and May.

TAGS TENDERS:

Since our last report, we have completed 1 further sales event in Dubai. This comprised 1Single Supplier Southern African Production of primarily High-end material. There was strong demand, particularly in the larger sizes +10ct, and steady demand in 2-10ct ranges. We witnessed some demand in 3-6 gr, but these goods remain very price sensitive. Overall, we had an 80% sell through.

We are currently presenting our multi-supplier event, which was completed on 29 May. In Johannesburg, our office has concluded 2

Further sales events since the end of April, the last concluding on 26th May. We are very pleased to report that our South African tenders continue to build our reputation and presence locally, as well as increase the number of local suppliers.

Our forthcoming tender in Dubai, starting in mid-June, will feature Original Zimbabwe production of close to 500k carats.

Trans Atlantic Gem Sales SA

Market & Tender Report