Gold forecast to glitter again next year despite biggest gain since 1979

Spot gold ⁠prices reached a record $4,381 in October, having never hit $3,000 before March, driven by demand from central banks and ‌investors with new participants ranging from stablecoin issuer Tether to corporate treasurers.

Gold has made its biggest jump since the 1979 oil crisis in 2025 — with prices doubling in the last two years — a performance which might previously have meant forecasts of a big ‍correction.

JP Morgan analysts estimate that for prices to stay flat, quarterly central bank and investment demand of around 350 metric tons is needed. They forecast this buying to average 585 tons per quarter in 2026.

Investor holdings of gold as a share of total assets under management have risen to 2.8% from pre-2022 levels of 1.5%, JP Morgan’s Shearer said, adding that while elevated, this was not necessarily a ceiling.

Morgan Stanley forecasts gold at $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, while JP Morgan expects average prices at above $4,600 in Q2 and more than $5,000 in Q4 and Metals Focus forecasts gold at $5,000 by end-2026.