Jewellers may enter slow growth as gold and silver costs surge

Rising gold prices and higher import duties are expected to moderate store growth to 12-15%, prompting brands to pivot toward franchise models and gold exchange programmes to sustain margins

India’s organised jewellery retailers may be entering a slower growth phase after three years of aggressive store expansion, as higher import duties on gold and silver and tighter curbs on silver imports threaten to weaken demand and inflate operating costs in FY27. ICRA suggests that the store count growth rate for jewellery retailers is likely to moderate to about 12-15% in FY27, down from about 24-25% per annum seen in the last three years. The blistering pace of growth over the last three years was driven by a post-pandemic wave of formalisation that benefited organised players.

According to consultancy CBRE, the share of jewellery in domestic retail leasing increased from levels of 5% in CY23 to 8% in CY25 as players capitalised on this. Gold prices, however, have more than doubled in the last three years, touching Rs 1,51,200 per 10 grams now, making jewellery purchases more expensive for consumers amid global uncertainty.